Herd Mentality Defeats Herd Immunity

Silverfiddle Rant!

In February, experts were hoping we could contain and eradicate Covid-19, just like we did with SARS in 2003, but even at that time, many were worrying that it was already too late, and that now appears to be the case.
The virus may never be “under control” until we reach herd immunity.



Beware Politicians with No Skin in The Game

Our erudite friend Farmer is fond of reminding us that having skin in the game affects decision-making. Denver's Maoist city council proves his point with their latest proclamation, where they demonstrate their compassion and generosity (with other people's money, of course).

“No Coloradan or small business who is unable to pay through no fault of their own should be required to pay rent during this health emergency, nor should they accumulate debt or interest for unpaid rent,” according to the proclamation

Once Again, Government is Caught Unprepared

I don't want witch hunts and guillotines, but our standing bureaucracies were caught unprepared, and made tragic mistakes launching wide-scale testing.  We need to learn the right lessons from this and restructure hierarchies and processes, and empower those good, smart people to move quickly and take risks.

But the problems go far broader and deeper than what a president does. Lack of planning and preparation contribute, but so too does bureaucratic inertia as well as fear among career officials of taking risks. Turnover in personnel robs government of historical knowledge and expertise. The process of policymaking-on-the-fly is less robust than it once was. Politics, too, gets in the way.  (Once Again, Government is Caught Unprepared)

Filter the Experts

We're getting a taste of what a world run by monomaniacal experts looks like

Experts can be guilty of being monomaniacs, interested only in the thing they are studying. That’s understandable, of course, because many of these things are hard to comprehend. And having put so much effort into their work, it’s also not unexpected, and very human, that most experts put a lot of weight on their conclusions and are convinced of their importance.

That’s exactly why, when scientists call for their findings to be implemented by government, we need politicians and civil servants to moderate their enthusiasm, examine contrary views and express appropriate scepticism. And, in short, judiciously weigh all the other factors that come to bear on any given set of conclusions. 
(Where is the vigorous debate?)

Supermodels

WHO initially suggested a case fatality rate (CFR) of 3.4 per cent ... A paper from Imperial on 10 February suggested CFR of 0.9 per cent, a more recent one on 30 March 0.66 per cent... Recent data from a German town suggest a CFR of 0.37 per cent, having found an actual infection rate in the town of about 15 per cent. (Where is the vigorous debate?)

US models are faring no better...

A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers.

“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”  (Stat News)

See also:

Good article on modeling: Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good

Covid-19 Tracker