Get to Work, America

Silverfiddle Rant!

Colorado's lockdown is lifted today, although there are still limits. Montana, Minnesota and Tennessee are also relaxing restrictions.

All eyes will be on the "dangerous" and "irresponsible" states of Georgia and Florida:  Trump-haters are rubbing their little hands together and preparing their schadenfreude snark as they eagerly await rising infections and death counts.

Hysterical Democrats are calling those refusing to cower in their homes ignorant MAGA hicks and selfish a-holes for wanting to get out in the sunshine and get back to work, although there is no scientific connection between people basking in the sunshine and breathing fresh air in Florida and people dying in New York City. Indeed, there is scant statistical correlation between lockdowns and Conronavirus cases.

Politicians like the mayor of El Lay state it more politely:

"We can't let one weekend reverse a month of work that you have invested in."

That's a nice piece of Sunk Cost Fallacy that resonates with the human mind (as many fallacies do), and it only makes sense if we're holding out until the cavalry can come riding over the hill to save us, but that's not going to happen. A vaccine is problematic due to the nature of the virus, and in the best of circumstances will take years. There is no imminent fix for this. We are not eradicating Covid-19.  It will remain on this earth until it finds no more hosts to attach itself to.

My answer to the good mayor is...

We’re not saving lives—we’re deferring deaths  

The experts tell us we have "flattened the curve," but given the poor quality of data and the multiple revisions downward of morbidity and mortality rates, how do they know?  Sure, a little logic and reason tells us the number of infections and deaths would most likely have been higher if we had done nothing, but which actions worked to slow the rate of infection? Cowering in our homes?  Washing our hands? Quarantining the sick and the vulnerable? Masks?  Keeping our distance?

Edward Ziegler thinks we'll be fully reopened soon, and not because of successes in contact tracing* (which is an "impossible" pipe dream that could metastasize into one more massive federal jobs program), testing, and vaccines.  He says delays and failures in these touted saviors will give us no choice but to Keep Calm and  Press On.

What say you?

* - When you're a Silicon Valley robber baron, every solution looks like an app.

LINKS:

Good Tracking Resource: KFF State Data and Trends
Experts worry quarantine fatigue is starting
Andrew Sullivan:  We can't go on like this much longer
Many Failures combined to unleash death toll on Italy