Expect a repeat of the past two days.
With the first debate now over, the large field of 2020 Democrats have just a month before heading back to the stage for their second round of debates in July.
The second scheduled debate will be hosted by CNN on July 30 and 31 in Detroit (Michigan is a battle state that Trump narrowly won in 2016) — and qualifications for the debate are the same as the first.
As Vox’s Andrew Prokop explained, candidates will have to hit one of two metrics to qualify:
1) Polling: A candidate could qualify by hitting just 1 percent in three separate polls released between January and a cutoff point (June 12) before the first debate. These could be either national polls or polls of any of the first four primary or caucus states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina). They would, however, have to be from a list of 18 respected polling organizations.
2) Grassroots fundraising: Separately, a candidate could also qualify by raising money from at least 65,000 unique donors. And to ensure at least some geographic spread of support, they’d have to have at least 200 donors each in 20 states.
Because the qualification rules are the same, you can expect the crop of candidates who made the cut to be roughly the same, though with a bit more time, a few more might meet that fundraising or polling threshold. Here’s who qualified for the first debate:
Fourteen candidates qualified by both polling and fundraising:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- California Sen. Kamala Harris
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro
- Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
- Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
- Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
- Author and activist Marianne Williamson
- New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Six candidates met just the polling threshold:
- Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
- Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan
- Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney
- California Rep. Eric Swalwell
- New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
- Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet
Four candidates didn’t meet either threshold:
- Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
- Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton
- Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam
- Former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel
Gravel’s campaign has already said they are “on track” to get him onstage for the July debate. Former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak also just announced his bid on Sunday and will try to make it on the stage.
What will be different in July is which candidates will match up onstage. As Prokop explained, the Democratic National Committee went to elaborate lengths to make sure there wasn’t an “undercard” debate:
So in May, the DNC and NBC News decided that rather than one random drawing for candidates, there would be two, as Politico’s Zach Montellaro and Steven Shepard first reported. The candidates would be divided into those polling at least 2 percent on average and those polling below that. Each group would be split among the debate nights about equally.
The particular polling average the DNC will use to determine this cutoff isn’t clear, but the candidates who are close to polling at that level nationally are Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, and perhaps Klobuchar. The DNC’s rule would ensure that half of those candidates appear on the first debate night and half on the second night. (The drawings will take place this Friday.)
Instead of Sanders versus Biden onstage, for example, Warren might get a chance to challenge the former vice president at the next debate. Expect details from CNN and the DNC over the next month.
What comes after the second debate in July?
Things will begin to change dramatically after the two-night July debate. The DNC significantly increased its standards to qualify for the third debate.
In September, it will be more difficult to make the cut: Candidates need at least 2 percent support in four polls and 130,000 unique donors (with at least 400 donors each in 20 states) to qualify.
The DNC reserved two nights for the September debate, but because of the higher threshold, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver estimates just eight candidates — Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Klobuchar, and Booker — would qualify for the September debate as of now. But a lot can change between now and then.
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