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Di Andrea Rossi
L’analisi sui costi e benefici della Torino-Lione, approdata ieri sera a Palazzo Chigi, porta un verdetto impietoso: secondo la commissione di esperti guidata dal professor Marco Ponti, e composta da professori in passato apertamente scettici o contrari all’opera, la Tav sarebbe un enorme spreco di soldi pubblicicon una sproporzione di costi di almeno 5,7 miliardi rispetto ai benefici e con l’ipotesi che il divario arrivi fino a 8 miliardi. Riporta la firma di cinque commissari l'analisi costi-benefici, pubblicata oggi dal Mit, che boccia la Torino-Lione. Il sesto, l'ingegnere Pierluigi Coppola, non ha sottoscritto il documento. A farlo notare è il parlamentare torinese del Pd, Davide Gariglio, che parla di «documento da invalidare». Coppola, sostiene, era «l'unico esperto neutrale presente tra i commissari scelti dal ministro Toninelli, che si è peraltro apertamente dissociato dai risultati finali»
Il dossier commissionato dal ministro dei Trasporti Danilo Toninelli, e rimasto secretato per oltre quaranta giorni, stima invece i benefici in più di 800 milioni, cifra ben lontana dai 20 miliardi stimati da Telt, la società Italo francese che segue i cantieri.
Per arrivare a un risultato cosi negativo la commissione ha lavorato su due fronti: le stime riviste di traffico, merci e passeggeri, stilate a partire dal 2011 dall’Osservatorio.
Nel primo scenario si ipotizza che il traffico merci ferroviario fra Torino e Lione (oggi fermo ai livelli del 2004) si moltiplichi di 25 volte, passando da 2,7 milioni di tonnellate del 2017 a 51,8 del 2059; i passeggeri da 700 mila diventerebbero 4,6 milioni. Per gli esperti è improbabile: servirebbe un tasso di crescita dei flussi del 2,5% annuo; che la nuova linea ferroviaria “rubi” il 18% delle merci oggi in transito sul confine Italo-svizzero, il 30% dei flussi stradali al confine di Ventimiglia, il 55% del traforo del Fréjus e il 40% del Monte Bianco. E ciononostante il saldo sarebbe negativo per 7,8 miliardi.
from Informazione Consapevole http://bit.ly/2I6IOIx
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