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wikipedia) News Today: Trump Said He Expected a 'Red Wave' in the 2018 Midterms — Here's Why Experts Think That's 'Extremely Unlikely'
Trump's optimism is unwarranted.
As the close House race Tuesday night in the deep-red 12th District in Ohio demonstrated, Democrats have a clear advantage in the upcoming midterm elections. But while this fact has been widely recognized, with many predicting a so-called "blue wave" swinging control of the House — and possibly the Senate — back to Democrats, President Donald Trump has been predicting a "red wave."
And yet as Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said, there's no basis for the president's predictions.
"I think he's wrong, because if you take the last century, there's actually only been two midterm elections, the first midterm election of a new president, Franklin Roosevelt in 1934 and George W. Bush in 2002, where the president's party, the White House party, actually gained a few seats in the house," Sabato said Tuesday on CNN's "OutFront." "And it was just a few in both cases. It's extremely unlikely that there'd be a 'red wave.'"
He continued: "Even Republican operatives tell you privately they would be thrilled if they ended up only losing 15 seats. Democrats need 23. It would mean Democrats get pretty close to taking over but fail."
He argued that there are three types of waves that we're likely to see in midterms.
First, a small wave would be Democrats picking up 15-20 seats in the House — leaving them in the minority. Second, a medium wave would see them win back the house with 23 new seats, or perhaps a few more.
"The big blue wave would mean 40 seats, maybe more," he said. "Is it possible? Sure. Do we see it yet? No."
Watch the clip below:
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News Today: Trump Said He Expected a 'Red Wave' in the 2018 Midterms — Here's Why Experts Think That's 'Extremely Unlikely'
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News Today: Trump Said He Expected a 'Red Wave' in the 2018 Midterms — Here's Why Experts Think That's 'Extremely Unlikely'
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News Today: Trump Said He Expected a 'Red Wave' in the 2018 Midterms — Here's Why Experts Think That's 'Extremely Unlikely'
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